Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence Services in the Framework of Security Science

The Intelligence Circle as the Core of Security Science

In Security Science, intelligence is the essential analytical and operational instrument for understanding, predicting, and managing threats to national and international security.
The Intelligence Circle — also known as the Intelligence Cycle — lies at the heart of this process. It encompasses a continuous sequence of interdependent stages:

1.     Planning and Direction – defining intelligence priorities in accordance with national interests and strategic objectives;

2.     Information Gathering – the systematic collection of data from various sources;

3.     Processing and Assessment – verification, classification, and evaluation of gathered data;

4.     Analysis and Interpretation – the transformation of information into actionable intelligence;

5.     Dissemination and Decision-Making – communicating findings to decision-makers, followed by feedback and new tasking.

This cyclical structure ensures that intelligence work remains adaptive, evidence-based, and responsive to changing security threats.

Information Gathering: The Foundation of Security Knowledge

Information Gathering is the first operational phase in the intelligence process. It involves the coordinated use of multiple intelligence disciplines — HUMINT (Human Intelligence), SIGINT (Signals Intelligence), OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence), IMINT (Imagery Intelligence), and CYBINT (Cyber Intelligence).
In Security Science, gathering is not merely a technical act but a scientifically structured process guided by epistemological principles: the goal is to obtain verifiable, relevant, and ethically sourced information.
This phase reflects the empirical dimension of Security Science, where observation and data collection form the base of knowledge for further interpretation and strategic action.

Assessment and Analysis: From Data to Intelligence

The next phase — Assessment and Analysis — represents transforming raw data into intelligence knowledge.
Assessment involves evaluating each piece of information’s credibility, reliability, and significance, while analysis identifies patterns, trends, and causal relationships.

In Security Science, this analytical stage corresponds to the methodological framework of Security System Analysis — the process by which complex interactions between political, military, economic, informational, and societal factors are examined to produce a coherent understanding of threats.

Analytical products are then categorized as:

·       Strategic Intelligence – long-term, policy-oriented analysis;

·       Operational Intelligence – focused on ongoing missions and operations;

·       Tactical Intelligence – directly supporting field-level decision-making.

This hierarchy mirrors the structural organization of Security Management, where decisions at different levels require different depths of knowledge and precision.

Prediction and Anticipation: The Scientific Edge of Intelligence

The highest function of intelligence — and a defining characteristic of Security Science — is prediction.
Prediction is not speculation but a scientifically grounded process of anticipating threats and opportunities through modeling, scenario development, and trend analysis.
To foresee potential developments in political, economic, and technological environments, it requires a synthesis of past data, real-time observation, and theoretical frameworks.

In this sense, prediction transforms Security Science from a descriptive into a prescriptive discipline, capable of understanding and preventing threats.
This is where Security Science merges with Strategic Foresight, an area increasingly relevant in hybrid warfare, cyber defense, and national resilience planning.

From Security System to Security Culture

The intelligence process operates within the broader architecture of the Security System — a structured network of institutions, laws, resources, and human capabilities designed to protect national interests.
However, no system can function effectively without Security Management, which coordinates strategic objectives, operational execution, and continuous performance assessment.

At the apex of this hierarchy stands Security Culture — the highest expression of societal awareness and responsibility toward security.
As emphasized in From Security Science to Security Culture (Trifunović et al., 2022), security culture represents the internalization of security values, ensuring that every citizen, institution, and decision-maker contributes to a stable, resilient society.

In other words:
Security Science provides the knowledge,
Security System provides the structure,
Security Management provides the coordination,
and Security Culture provides the conscience and sustainability of the entire framework.

INIS and the Advancement of Intelligence Studies

The Institute for National and International Security (INIS) integrates these principles into its academic and practical work.
INIS fosters a multidisciplinary understanding of intelligence, counter-intelligence, and predictive analysis through research, training, and publications such as the Security Science Journal (SSJ).
By bridging theoretical foundations with real-world applications, INIS promotes a model of integrated intelligence education that combines scientific methodology, technological innovation, and ethical responsibility.

INIS’s mission reflects the vision of modern Security Science:
to transform knowledge into foresight, foresight into preparedness, and preparedness into resilience.