INIS distinguished member Dimitrios Tsailas, Rear Admiral (ret) from the Hellenic Navy, took part in the Paremvasi Think Tank members event, where he had the honor of presenting on the topic of “Artificial Intelligence in Digital & Hybrid Warfare.”

Rethinking Global Security in the Age of Military AI

Executive Summary

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer just a support tool in modern warfare—it is emerging as a decisive factor in the projection of global power. As military forces around the world integrate AI into surveillance systems, autonomous weapons, and decision-making processes, the nature of conflict is undergoing a profound transformation. While the geopolitical landscape remains marked by traditional power struggles and strategic balancing, the tools of warfare have evolved dramatically.

Military AI offers both opportunities and grave risks. On one hand, it promises enhanced precision, operational efficiency, and potentially reduced human casualties. On the other, it raises the specter of algorithmic escalation, where machines—not humans—drive the tempo and scale of conflict. The growing autonomy of AI systems challenges centuries-old doctrines of military command, human judgment, and international norms.

Despite these seismic shifts, international governance mechanisms remain alarmingly underdeveloped. No binding treaties regulate the use of AI in warfare, transparency is weak, and oversight mechanisms are nearly nonexistent. Drawing on lessons from the nuclear age, this paper proposes a new strategic framework that prioritizes safety, transparency, and multilateral cooperation. The global community must act proactively to ensure that the integration of AI into warfare enhances security rather than undermines it.

Artificial Intelligence Is Redefining the Rules of Global Security

In international security, some dynamics remain stubbornly constant. States continue to pursue power in a zero-sum world, vying for military and economic advantage, navigating security dilemmas, and engaging in cycles of deterrence and escalation. Armed conflict remains a looming possibility, and the relentless pursuit of strategic edge persists. Yet while the core logic of global competition endures, the tools and terrain of conflict have transformed beyond recognition.

A Shifting Battlefield

Throughout history, technological innovation has redefined the landscape of warfare. During the age of empires, maritime dominance determined global influence. In the 20th century, industrialized warfare made control of the skies and mechanized armies central to victory. The digital age ushered in an era where supremacy hinged on information—cyber capabilities, electronic warfare, surveillance, and the control of narratives.

Today, a new strategic frontier is emerging: the control of intelligence. Not just human intelligence, but machine intelligence. Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer a support system—it is rapidly becoming the core engine of military decision-making and power projection. From autonomous drones to predictive surveillance and algorithmic targeting, AI has already been integrated into command-and-control systems at the highest levels. What once took hours of human deliberation now unfolds in milliseconds at machine speed.

This shift is not merely functional—it is transformative.

The Strategic Impact of AI on Warfare

Military applications of AI are rapidly advancing. From autonomous drones to real-time battlefield analytics and algorithmic targeting, AI systems are being embedded into the core of military operations. Key transformations include:

•​Speed of Decision-Making: AI compresses decision cycles, executing what once took hours in mere seconds.

•​Predictive Surveillance: AI identifies threats and patterns beyond human cognitive capacity.

•​Autonomous Engagement: AI systems can detect, track, and engage targets with minimal or no human input.

From Clausewitz to AI

War, as Carl von Clausewitz famously observed, is shaped by a volatile triad of passion, chance, and reason—a framework grounded in the human condition. Clausewitz acknowledged that rationality was often overwhelmed by fear, hatred, or the fog of war. Similarly, Sun Tzu emphasized the moral authority and intuition of the general as decisive forces in battle.

But the Clausewitzian conception of war—as a fundamentally human endeavor—now faces an existential challenge. In the coming decades, conflict may increasingly be waged by systems devoid of emotion, immune to fatigue, and uninfluenced by psychological factors. The uncertainty that once defined the art of war may give way to the clinical precision of machine logic. Leadership as once understood—shaped by charisma, intuition, and moral clarity—may become obsolete.

While machines can deceive and adapt, they do so through probabilistic reasoning, not instinct. The battlefield’s fog may persist, but it will be informational rather than emotional. Clausewitz’s triad may break. And with it, the human essence of war may fade.

Strategic Disruption, Tactical Precision

The cliché of the “game-changer” is often overused in military circles, but in this context, it is warranted. Artificial intelligence is not just altering how wars are fought—it is reshaping the very nature of conflict itself.

Optimists argue that AI can usher in a new era of surgical precision, reducing human error and minimizing collateral damage. Proponents see algorithmic deterrence—swift, data-driven, and precise—as a stabilizing force in an increasingly multipolar world.

But the risks are equally profound. AI systems may misinterpret intent or escalate conflict based on flawed data, leading to algorithmic brinkmanship where machines dictate the pace and scope of confrontation. The proliferation of autonomous weapons and surveillance platforms increases the risk of their use by rogue states or non-state actors with limited accountability. And the competitive pressure to develop ever-faster, more capable AI systems may incentivize shortcuts in safety, testing, and ethical oversight.

Most troubling, global governance has failed to keep pace. There are no binding international agreements on the use of AI in warfare. Transparency is minimal. Norms are undeveloped. Verification and accountability mechanisms are virtually nonexistent.

A New Strategic Framework

This is not the first time humanity has faced the consequences of its own invention. The nuclear age forced the creation of entirely new doctrines and institutions—arms control treaties, non-proliferation regimes, and deterrence theory—to manage existential risk.

The AI era demands no less—perhaps even more. The velocity, opacity, and autonomy of intelligent machines require a new strategic framework that is proactive, adaptive, and inclusive.

Such a framework must bring together not just states, but technologists, ethicists, legal scholars, and civil society. It must embed transparency and accountability at every level, resist the seductive logic of unchecked automation, and prioritize safety over speed in development. Above all, it must recognize that decisions made today—about governance, norms, and limits—will shape the future of global security for generations.

Existential Stakes

The stakes are no longer just tactical or operational—they are existential. As we hurtle into an era where power is projected at machine speed and critical decisions unfold in fractions of a second, the absence of wise governance is not just a policy failure. It is a threat to international peace and stability.

We are standing at a crossroads. The choices we make now will determine whether artificial intelligence becomes a force for security or a vector for catastrophe. When the last general becomes a machine, what remains of war as we knew it—and who will bear the consequences?

Conclusion

Military AI represents a paradigm shift in international security. It offers unmatched capabilities—but also opens the door to uncontrollable escalation, ethical ambiguity, and strategic instability. Just as the nuclear age demanded new doctrines and institutions, the AI age requires a forward-looking, cooperative, and ethical framework.

Without global coordination, the world risks entering an era where war is no longer a human decision, but an automated outcome. The time to act is now. Because when machines command, humanity still bears the consequences.

Bibliography

Algorithms of Armageddon. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Future Wars. By George Galdorisi and Sam J. Tangredi; Foreword by Robert O. Work. Naval Institute Press March 12, 2024

AI at War, “How Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning Are Changing Naval Warfare”, By Sam J. Tangredi and George Galdorisi, Naval Institute Press, April 15, 2021

U.S. Department of Defense, “Summary of the 2018 Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy: Harnessing AI to Advance Our Security and Prosperity,” Washington, DC.

Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Michael Howard and Peter Paret Princeton University Press, 1976

Sun Tzu in Space, “What International Relations, History, and Science Fiction Teach us about our Future”, By Gregory D. Miller, April 15, 2023